Italy: statistical data and forecasts for the PV and storage market 2022

Below is a summary of the reports prepared by Italia Solare regarding the first quarter of 2022 extracted from Gaudì data (Gestione Anagrafica Unica degli Impianti means Single Registry Management of the Systems) and the reports with forecasts for 2021-2025 prepared by Solar Power Europe regarding the Italian PV and storage market.

Italy is the second country, after Germany, in terms of installed photovoltaic power with approximately 22 GW of cumulative power at the end of 2022.

According to Solar Power Europe in its EU Market Outlook for Solar Power 2021-2025 it predicts that by the end of 2025 there may be another 7.1 GW of new power.

Photovoltaic power installed in Italy from the Conto Energia to the SuperBonus 110%

Conto Energia (was the feed in tariff) and the SuperBonus 110% (a big fiscal incentive for renewables and energy efficiency).

The bulk of the PV power installed dates back to the four-year period 2010-2013, with a peak in 2011, where there was the strong push given by the subsidy based on the incentive feed in tariff Conto Energia.

After a few years almost stagnant, the SuperBonus 110% has given new strength to the market, finally involving storage with a big incentive, given that previously, in addition to the regional subsidy for Lombardia and Veneto regions, there was a 50% tax deduction, which however it did not involve the systems incentivized by the old Conto Energia.

800 MW of new PV systems in 2021 with Superbonus 110%

This incentive, still valid, even if the Government has changed its rules and timing several times, has meant that after the great results of 2021 with 800 MW of new PV plants, compared to 600 MW in 2020, in Q1 2022 they were connected to the network new 377.31 MW (+ 116% compared to Q1 2021) according to Gaudì data.

Plants under 12 kW approximately 168 MW

Going into detail, about 168 MW come from installations under 12 kW which numerically represent 93% of all systems installed in Q1 2022.

The month-over-month comparison between Q1 2021 and Q1 2022 shows how there was a doubling of connected power in the months of January and February, while in March the difference with last year more than doubled.

Italy is the second largest market for battery installations

Also the SuperBonus 110% has allowed Italy to remain the second market for residential BESS battery installations accompanying PV systems in Europe according to Solar Power Europe’s European Market Outlook For Residential Battery Storage 2021-2025.

The installations in Italy of residential BESS storage systems started in 2015 thanks to subsidy consisting in the tax deduction of 50%, which however did not facilitate the bulk of the systems installed in the “golden age” of the GSE Conto Energia incentive.

Thanks also the non-repayable tenders of Veneto and Lombardy in 2020 approximately 100 MWh of installed capacity

Subsequently, the Veneto and Lombardy regions through their non-repayable tenders, not bound to the GSE incentive, made it possible to have an installed capacity of about 100 MWh at the end of 2020 only in that year with an increase of about 25% compared to 2019, according to the data provided by Gaudì.

Gaudì’s final balance for March 2022 certifies 411.29 MWh the total new capacity of 2021

The forecasts made by Solar Power Europe in its report published in November 2021 provided for about 200 MWh of new installations, but were denied by the final balance of Gaudì published in March 2022 which attested to 411.29 MWh the total new capacity of 2021, in practice twice as much as estimated by the high scenario this European association which has misunderstood what could have been the reaction of the market to the Superbonus 110%.

Given this, the forecasts that Solar Power Europe had made last November for the years to come can be denied, at least as long as the SuperBonus 110% continues, even if in September 2022 the installations on single homes will begin to decline, but being able condominiums    to continue to use of this special contribution, Italy can will be also for the next year the second market in Europe.